What an Era of Jobless Growth Means for the US Economy

Summary

Frances Donald of RBC describes a US economy entering a jobless-growth phase in 2026, with capex and government spending driving strong growth without requiring much job creation. She argues this growth will benefit markets more than households and that break-even job growth is around 40,000 per month and falling. She estimates unemployment could decline to 4.3% even as job growth slows.

• Frances Donald, RBC chief economist, describes US jobless growth.
• 2026 growth is expected to be driven by capex and government spending.
• Weak job creation may coexist with a declining unemployment rate.
• Break-even employment is estimated near 40,000 jobs per month and declining.
• RBC estimates unemployment could fall to 4.3%.
• Growth is seen benefiting markets more than the broader population.
• The segment warns against treating GDP growth as a cure-all for American households.