US Retail Sales Stall in December

Summary

US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, with eight of 13 categories declining. Invesco's Kristina Campmany said the data remains noisy and the consumer is bifurcated, choosier, and taking a break. She emphasized labor market weakness and the need for job growth to sustain US economic growth, noting hyperscalers have driven much of the expansion. The discussion also covered fiscal stimulus, tax refunds, and expectations for the upcoming jobs report.

• US retail sales were unchanged in December, with weakness across most categories.
• Kristina Campmany described a bifurcated, K-shaped consumer recovery.
• She flagged labor market weakness as a key risk to the economic outlook.
• Hyperscalers have driven much of US economic growth, raising concentration concerns.
• The guest expected a jobs print around 68k-70k with risks skewed weaker.
• Fiscal stimulus and tax refunds could support consumers but are uncertain.
• Market may be overreactive to weak payroll prints.