Jeff Currie Says Commodities Are Poised for Supercycle

Summary

Jeff Currie discusses the oil companies as the biggest asymmetric trade, with a 15.5% free cash flow yield vs 0% for tech, and argues the commodities supercycle is in its early stages. He warns of supply shocks and inventory drawdowns leading to non-linear price moves.

• Currie says commodities are the best performing asset class this decade.
• He sees a multi-decade supercycle driven by CapEx starvation and AI demand.
• Oil companies have a 15.5% free cash flow yield vs 0% for hyperscalers.
• The back end of the oil curve is too low and needs repricing.
• Inventory drawdowns are expected to cause non-linear price increases in diesel, jet fuel, gasoline.
• He recommends owning oil companies as the most asymmetric trade.