2021 All Over Again? The 55% Bitcoin Drop That Preceded New Highs w/ Scott Melker

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 10, 2026 at 19:45  |  38:40  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Scott Melker — Host of The Wolf Of All Streets
John Gillen — Co-Host, Milk Road Macro

Summary

Scott Melker joins John Gillen to discuss whether Bitcoin has bottomed after a roughly 55% drawdown. Scott weighs technical signals, sentiment, and the 2021 analog, while also laying out his views on Ethereum, Solana, crypto market structure, tokenization, stablecoins, macro, and precious metals. He remains constructive on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, prefers gold over silver, and expects a dovish Fed to support crypto.

  • Bitcoin's weekly RSI and extreme fear suggest it may be bottoming or basing.
  • Scott is accumulating Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with Bitcoin as his largest position.
  • He sees crypto splitting into institutional haves and retail-dependent have-nots.
  • Ethereum is favored for institutional adoption, L1 scaling, and tokenization leadership.
  • Solana is viewed as fast, cheap, and a close second to Ethereum for institutional use.
  • Scott thinks silver's rally was retail FOMO and prefers gold over silver.
  • He expects Kevin Warsh to be dovish and supportive for crypto into the midterms.
  • Regulatory clarity, stablecoin monetization, and alternative L1 demand remain uncertain.
Ideas
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 1:52
Bitcoin likely bottoming and basing
Scott thinks Bitcoin may have bottomed or is in the process of bottoming and basing. He notes the weekly chart broke its 50-week moving average, which historically has led to a trip toward the 200-week MA and a retest of the 50-week MA, with monthly 50 MA support around $55K-$56K. He also points to weekly RSI below 30, which has only happened a few times and has marked the beginning of basing periods, and sentiment/fear-greed at extreme lows, with the crypto fear-greed index at 5, below prior bottoms. He expects potentially 150-250 days of boring chop with lows in or close before an eventual ascent.
BTC HIGH
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 10:52
Own crypto haves with institutional ETFs
Scott expects Ethereum to capture the lion's share of the tokenized real-world asset market, citing BlackRock's report that 65% of RWAs are on Ethereum and the growth of tokenized Treasuries to $10 billion. He thinks tokenization via blockchain rails is unstoppable because settlement is faster and cheaper, and while there may be room for multiple chains, ETH is best positioned. The risk is that private walled gardens capture the upside instead of public crypto holders.
ETH HIGH
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 10:52
Own crypto haves with institutional ETFs
Scott is buying Solana now, though less than Bitcoin. He views SOL as more speculative than BTC but likes it as fast, cheap, agnostic technology where individual entities can deploy and capture value. He thinks Solana has as good a chance as anyone and is a close second to Ethereum for institutional and tokenization adoption. Hyperliquid is compelling but more about its perpetuals exchange, and BlackRock could plausibly tokenize Treasuries on Solana.
SOL HIGH
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 12:11
Ethereum L1 pivot favors ETH over L2s
Scott says Vitalik Buterin's pivot away from an L2-centric roadmap toward scaling Ethereum's L1 and specializing L2s is bullish for ETH, bearish for L2s, and probably a nothingburger for the broader market. He notes Ethereum transaction volume is near all-time highs while fees are only cents rather than hundreds of dollars, suggesting L1 improvements. He is optimistic ETH can become the everything chain, while specialized L2s may only serve niches.
Ethereum L2s MED
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 20:22
Alternative L1s lack adoption demand
Scott argues there is now more block space than adoption and that too many L1s are being built. While the capacity is useful if a real use case emerges, he does not see enough demand for all L1s to eat at the moment, implying weaker or speculative L1s outside the best-positioned chains are unattractive.
Alternative L1s MED
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 31:25
Prefer gold; silver likely peaked
Scott thinks silver's massive rally was retail FOMO rather than justified by industrial demand, since silver's industrial usage was the same at $20 as at $120. He compares it to an alt-season blow-off, says silver has probably put in a peak for quite a while, and prefers gold over silver.
GLD MED
Scott Melker Host of The Wolf Of All Streets 31:25
Prefer gold; silver likely peaked
Scott thinks silver's massive rally was retail FOMO rather than justified by industrial demand, since silver's industrial usage was the same at $20 as at $120. He compares it to an alt-season blow-off, says silver has probably put in a peak for quite a while, and prefers gold over silver.
SILVER MED
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This Milk Road Daily video, published February 10, 2026, features Scott Melker discussing BTC, ETH, SOL, Ethereum L2s, Alternative L1s, GLD, SILVER. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Scott Melker  · Tickers: BTC, ETH, SOL, Ethereum L2s, Alternative L1s, GLD, SILVER