Market doesn't believe Trump has moved away from tariff escalation mode: Evercore's Julian Emanuel

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 18:46  |  3:49  |  CNBC
Speakers
Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI

Summary

Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI discusses the state of equity markets amid tariff escalation and geopolitical tensions. He says President Trump has not clearly moved away from escalation mode and that the current selloff is contained relative to April, so investors should wait for more stress before expecting a policy pivot. He also flags rising concern for Europe due to NATO/global-order fragmentation and conflict risks on its eastern and prospective western flanks.

  • Stocks are selling off and yields are spiking as markets react to Trump policy and Greenland/NATO tensions.
  • Julian Emanuel says the current decline is reasonably contained and volatility is not near April-style stress.
  • He does not think Trump has moved away from tariff escalation mode, keeping near-term market risk elevated.
  • April's 20% stock decline triggered a policy pivot, but the current setup lacks that kind of stress.
  • Europe faces concern over deconstruction of the global order and conflict theaters in Ukraine/Russia and potentially Greenland.
  • The discussion also touches on European equities' strong run and pressure in U.S. defense names.
  • Emanuel notes that risk and volatility measures started 2026 at post-pandemic lows despite multiple geopolitical catalysts.
  • He frames the tariff issue as less about tariffs themselves and more about threats to free-flowing goods and services.
Ideas
Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 0:45
Tariff escalation keeps near-term market risk elevated.
The market faces near-term risk because Trump has not yet moved away from tariff escalation mode, and a policy pivot like April may require more stress than the current environment. The current decline is reasonably contained, volatility is contained, and there is nowhere near the stress of April's 20% stock drop, so this is a wait-and-see setup rather than a clear buying opportunity.
SPY MED
Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 2:14
Europe faces multiple geopolitical risk fronts.
Europe faces mounting geopolitical concern from the deconstruction of the global order relative to NATO, the existing conflict theater on its eastern flank with Ukraine/Russia, and prospectively a western-flank issue in Greenland. That gives investors plenty of reason for caution on European assets even after European equities had a strong start to the year.
VGK MED
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This CNBC video, published January 20, 2026, features Julian Emanuel discussing SPY, VGK. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Julian Emanuel  · Tickers: SPY, VGK