Stocks Are Rotating Hard; This Is Where Smart Money Is Going | Sam Burns

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  November 24, 2025 at 02:29  |  41:51  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Sam Burns — Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research

Summary

Sam Burns, Chief Market Strategist at Mill Street Research, says markets are rotating away from speculative assets and crypto toward companies with real earnings amid a K-shaped economy. He remains constructive on equities and tech but urges differentiation, likes financials, gold, the euro, and non-US equities, and is cautious on Bitcoin, oil, and AI capex risks. He expects limited Fed cuts and sees fiscal policy as the biggest economic risk.

  • Risk appetite peaked in mid-October, with speculative and crypto assets pulling back while earnings-backed equities held up.
  • Capital is rotating within equities and toward non-US markets; dollar diversification benefits gold and the euro.
  • Labor market data show gradual deterioration without widespread layoffs, while inflation remains above target and tariffs pressure goods prices.
  • Sam stays constructive on equities and technology but favors differentiated exposure to quality tech names.
  • Financials are viewed as a contrarian sector with resilient earnings and stable credit conditions.
  • He is underweight energy and expects crude oil to struggle, though refiners benefit from higher margins.
  • Bitcoin is seen as a risk-appetite asset that may consolidate, and AI capex carries bubble-like risks.
  • The Fed is expected to cut only modestly, and fiscal policy is the biggest economic risk.
Ideas
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 0:16
De-dollarization favors gold and euro
Demand to move assets and exposure out of the US and especially the US dollar should continue while Trump causes policy chaos; central banks and non-US investors seek alternatives to the dollar, but there are few good alternatives, so gold and the euro benefit and the dollar faces a headwind.
FXE GLD HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 0:16
De-dollarization favors gold and euro
Demand to move assets and exposure out of the US and especially the US dollar should continue while Trump causes policy chaos; central banks and non-US investors seek alternatives to the dollar, but there are few good alternatives, so gold and the euro benefit and the dollar faces a headwind.
USD HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 3:28
Non-US equities outperform on capital rotation
Capital is leaving the US market and rotating into non-US or overseas equities, which have been outperforming the US as investors reposition between US and non-US assets.
non-US equities MED
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 14:39
Financials attractive on resilient earnings and credit
Financials are a contrarian or out-of-favor sector where earnings estimates are holding up well; credit is not a big problem for most of the economy, most companies and households are not overleveraged, and credit spreads should not widen much for a while.
FINANC HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 21:34
AI capex risks bubble-like overspend
AI spending and capex have bubble characteristics; it resembles an arms race where not everyone can win and in some cases no one wins; chips depreciate quickly and companies may look back and see they overspent, so the market is acting as though everyone can win, which is a risk to monitor.
AIQ HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 22:20
Nvidia wins as AI chip supplier
Nvidia is the main winner in the AI arms race because it sells the chips to all the major companies building AI models and data centers; even if everyone cannot win the arms race, Nvidia is the primary arms supplier.
NVDA MED
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 24:51
Stay long US equities on earnings
He advises staying in equities generally because stocks should hold up for a while longer; the market rotation favors companies with earnings and broader participation, earnings estimates are still rising, and stocks are the best bet among major asset classes like oil, gold, and Bitcoin.
SPY HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 25:00
Stay long tech despite rich valuations
He tells institutional clients to stay in equities and stay in the tech sector because tech has high margins, high ROE, and revenue growth, and earnings estimates are still rising; while expensive, these companies have earned their multiples and the risk of getting out too early is significant.
XLK HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 25:24
Communication services sector is lagging
The communication services sector has started to lag and its earnings estimates are not as strong as before; Meta's earnings made analysts less enthusiastic, as did other names like Netflix and T-Mobile, making the sector less attractive.
XLC MED
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 25:47
Oracle losing momentum after prior boost
Oracle got a big boost a few months ago but is now starting to lose that momentum, making it a less attractive tech name.
ORCL LOW
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 25:56
Favor Google, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom
Within tech he advises differentiation, favoring Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom because they are doing well and their earnings estimates are still rising, with analysts having to raise forecasts that were too conservative.
GOOG AAPL MSFT AVGO MED
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 34:44
Oil and energy remain unattractive
Crude oil prices will struggle to rise and may be sideways to down because supply and demand are weak and there is plenty of oil; he is underweight the energy sector as oil is not a good place to be.
WTI HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 34:44
Oil and energy remain unattractive
Crude oil prices will struggle to rise and may be sideways to down because supply and demand are weak and there is plenty of oil; he is underweight the energy sector as oil is not a good place to be.
XLE HIGH
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 35:02
Refiners benefit from higher margins
Refining margins have gone up, so some oil refiners are doing better even though he is underweight the broader energy sector.
CRAK MED
Sam Burns Chief Strategist, Mill Street Research 35:14
Bitcoin may consolidate; avoid near term
He lacks a strong framework for Bitcoin and sees it mainly as a risk-appetite measure; it has likely had its best move for a while and may consolidate at best before crypto does well again, and it cannot serve as a dollar alternative.
BTC MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published November 24, 2025, features Sam Burns discussing FXE, GLD, USD, non-US equities, FINANC, AIQ, NVDA, SPY, XLK, XLC, ORCL, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AVGO, WTI, XLE, CRAK, BTC. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Sam Burns  · Tickers: FXE, GLD, USD, non-US equities, FINANC, AIQ, NVDA, SPY, XLK, XLC, ORCL, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AVGO, WTI, XLE, CRAK, BTC