CNBC Fed Survey: Expect more than one hike

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 16, 2026 at 00:27  |  4:13  |  CNBC
Speakers
Steve Liesman — Senior Economics Reporter
Melissa Lee — Host, Fast Money

Summary

Steve Liesman presents the latest CNBC Fed Survey ahead of the Fed decision, showing a sharp hawkish shift: most respondents expect a hike this month and a majority see at least one more hike this year. The survey also shows higher inflation expectations, above-potential GDP, and low unemployment. Liesman discusses whether the Fed will provide guidance, how the long end of the Treasury curve may react, and the message from the 2-year yield trading 100bp above fed funds.

  • CNBC Fed Survey expects a hike at this month's meeting.
  • 86% expect at least one hike this year; 55% see more than one.
  • Inflation outlook for 2026 rose to about 3.5%.
  • Survey sees GDP above potential and unemployment low.
  • Respondents warn long-end Treasury yields may sell off if the Fed hikes.
  • 10-year yield at/above 5% may need Fed assurances on inflation plan.
  • Steve Liesman highlights the 2-year yield 100bp above fed funds.
  • Fed Chair Warsh's guidance and opening statement are key.
Ideas
Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 0:28
Fed survey sees multiple hikes this year
The CNBC Fed Survey shows a sharp hawkish turn: 76% expect a hike at this month's meeting, 86% expect at least one hike this year, 55% see more than one hike this year, and a third see more than two hikes through July 2027. With the 2026 inflation outlook rising to about 3.5% from 2.7% before the Iraq war, GDP above potential, and unemployment low, respondents think the Fed may have more work to do to slow the economy.
Fed Funds Rate HIGH
Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 1:21
Long end may sell off further
Survey respondents warn that US economic conditions are incompatible with the Fed's policy rate; either inflation must fall or the Fed must hike, otherwise the long end of the US yield curve will continue to sell off if the Fed hikes. With the 10-year at or above 5%, the market may need assurances from the Fed that there is a real long-term plan to attack inflation.
10-Year Treasury Yield MED
Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 3:50
Two-year yield 100bp over Fed funds
The two-year Treasury yield is 100 basis points above the fed funds rate, which he cites as the market talking to the Fed and signaling that policy and rate expectations are already tight ahead of the decision.
2-Year Treasury Yield MED
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This CNBC video, published September 16, 2026, features Steve Liesman discussing Fed Funds Rate, 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2-Year Treasury Yield. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Steve Liesman  · Tickers: Fed Funds Rate, 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2-Year Treasury Yield