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US Consumer Spending Picks Up, Public vs. Private Credit Markets | Real Yield 6/25/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 25, 2026 at 20:14  |  44:11  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Adam Marden — Co-Portfolio Manager Dynamic Global Bond Strategy, T. Rowe Price
Viktor Hjort — Global Head of Credit Strategy & Desk Analyst, BNP Paribas
Deirdre Dunn — Head of Global Rates, Citi
Stephanie Doyle — Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management
Matthew Gastall — Head of Municipal Bonds, Bloomberg Intelligence
Enda Curran — Senior Economics Reporter, Bloomberg News

Summary

This episode of Bloomberg Real Yield discusses hot PCE inflation data, the outlook for Fed policy, and its impact on rates and credit markets. A roundtable with T. Rowe Price and Citi explores curve flattening trades, while BNP Paribas and JPMorgan Asset Management address investment-grade credit spread tightening. The show also covers private credit redemption pressures and municipal bond developments in New York and New Jersey.

  • Headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1% annualized, core to 3.4%, accelerating to fastest pace in over three years.
  • Guests debate whether inflation is peaking; Bloomberg Economics sees peak and a long disinflationary road, Fed likely to stay on hold.
  • Adam Marden of T. Rowe Price calls for a 5/30 Treasury curve flattener in the next 6–9 months, driven by manufacturing cycle and AI capex.
  • Deirdre Dunn of Citi expects higher front-end volatility as Fed balance sheet shrinks and communication shifts.
  • Viktor Hjort of BNP Paribas sees IG credit spreads tightening to the 60s due to corporate bond scarcity versus government debt.
  • Stephanie Doyle of JPMorgan highlights bulletproof IG fundamentals from secular tailwinds in pharma, defense, energy, utilities.
  • Private credit funds again cap redemptions; J.P. Morgan seeks SEC approval for a monthly redemption fund.
  • Municipal bond segments cover New York comptroller primaries and New Jersey's rich trading levels.
Ideas
Adam Marden Co-Portfolio Manager Dynamic Global Bond Strategy, T. Rowe Price 11:58
5/30 Treasury curve flattener for six to nine months
The manufacturing cycle and massive AI capex are driving nominal growth higher, which will keep the front end elevated while the long end remains anchored by Fed credibility. This environment favors a 5/30 Treasury curve flattening over the next six to nine months, reversing the persistent steepening bias that hasn't sustainably worked.
US 5s30s Flattener HIGH
Viktor Hjort Global Head of Credit Strategy & Desk Analyst, BNP Paribas 24:31
IG credit spreads can tighten to 60 bps
Investment grade credit spreads can tighten further to the 60s—levels not seen in decades—because corporate bond supply is scarce relative to massive government borrowing. The K-shaped economy means only tech is issuing heavily while other sectors are issuing below trend, so supply dynamics remain favorable. The risk is that AI monetization fails to materialize, derailing the spread call.
LQD HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 25, 2026, features Adam Marden, Viktor Hjort discussing US 5s30s Flattener, LQD. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Adam Marden, Viktor Hjort  · Tickers: US 5s30s Flattener, LQD