Power Semiconductors Thesis (I) – 5 Stocks with Realistic 5x+ Mid-term Potential

Outlier Capital · Outlier Capital · June 17, 2026 at 12:45 · ⏱ 11 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Power semiconductors, especially SiC and GaN, are critical for AI data center scaling due to rising electricity demand and shift to 800V architectures. The author recommends five stocks (Wolfspeed, Navitas, onsemi, STMicroelectronics, Monolithic Power) as asymmetric plays with 5x+ potential over 5-7 years, disclosing a personal long position in Wolfspeed.
  • •U.S. data center IT load is projected to double from ~80 GW in 2025 to ~150 GW by 2028.
  • •Global data center electricity consumption could exceed 945 TWh by 2030.
  • •Data center power semiconductor TAM projected to grow from ~$2.0B in 2025 to ~$4.3B by 2032 (CAGR ~11%).
  • •AI data center power semi TAM expanding from ~$1.5B in 2025 to ~$3.8B by 2028, driven by exploding content per rack.
  • •Broader SiC + GaN power device markets are growing at 24–26% CAGR, outpacing legacy silicon.
  • •Wolfspeed emerged from a prepackaged Chapter 11 restructuring in Sept 2025, reducing total debt by ~70% (~$4.6B eliminated) and cutting annual cash interest ~60%.
Read time 11 min
Length 11,366 chars
Category finance
Ideas
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
Vertically integrated SiC player with post-restructuring balance sheet, potential AI datacenter design wins, and 200mm ramp — highest risk/reward in the basket.
WOLF HIGH
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
Pure-play GaN leader aggressively expanding into high-power AI PSUs with 4.5kW+ platforms; benefits from 800V architecture shift and hyperscaler efficiency needs.
NVTS HIGH
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
Global semiconductor scale with strong SiC capabilities; benefits from both electrification and AI data center tailwinds with lower single-name volatility.
STM HIGH
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
Diversified SiC leader with EliteSiC portfolio; lower risk than pure-plays due to broad revenue base across auto, industrial, and data center.
ON HIGH
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
High-quality power management compounder with 50%+ data center growth; rising power content per AI server supports sustained earnings and multiple expansion.
MPWR HIGH
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This newsletter, published June 17, 2026, features Outlier Capital discussing WOLF, NVTS, STM, ON, MPWR. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Outlier Capital  · Tickers: WOLF, NVTS, STM, ON, MPWR