USA Rare Earth ($USAR): The 10x National Champion the U.S. Government Is Building
Outlier Capital
· Outlier Capital
· June 11, 2026 at 12:45
· ⏱ 15 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
USA Rare Earth (USAR) is positioned to become the Western 'mine-to-magnet' champion for rare earths, backed by up to $1.6bn in U.S. government CHIPS funding and a planned acquisition of Serra Verde. The author argues that execution risk is high but that the combination of strategic relevance, government support, and a credible path to scale makes a 10x return possible over the long term.
•USAR has definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $1.6bn in CHIPS funding ($277m federal incentives + $1.3bn senior secured loan).
•The company targets 10,000 tpa of rare earth metal alloy and 10,000 tpa of NdFeB magnets by 2029.
•Planned acquisition of Serra Verde for ~$2.8bn adds the Pela Ema mine in Brazil, the only scaled non-Asia producer of all four magnetic rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb).
•Serra Verde has a 15-year, 100% offtake agreement with a U.S. government-backed SPV, including price floors.
•Pre-Serra Verde, USAR targeted $2.6bn revenue and $1.2bn EBITDA by 2030; post-acquisition targets ~$1.8bn EBITDA by 2030.
•Stillwater, Oklahoma commissioned a 600 tpa magnet line (Phase 1a) in Q1 2026, with a second line targeting Q1 2027.
•Round Top in Texas is a domestic heavy rare earth deposit (>70% HREE) with commercial production targeted for late 2028.
Author believes USA Rare Earth is a strategically critical Western rare earth platform with government backing, and the upside case (10x) is based on execution across mining, processing, and magnet pr
Author believes USA Rare Earth is a strategically critical Western rare earth platform with government backing, and the upside case (10x) is based on execution across mining, processing, and magnet production.
This newsletter, published June 11, 2026,
features Outlier Capital
discussing USAR.
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