NuScale Power ($SMR): The Most Credible 10x Bet on Nuclear Energy

Outlier Capital · Outlier Capital · May 22, 2026 at 12:45 · ⏱ 15 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Outlier Capital argues that NuScale Power ($SMR) is the most credible play on the small modular nuclear reactor theme due to its unique NRC approval, conventional uranium fuel supply, and a potential multi-gigawatt agreement with TVA. The author is long SMR and sees a possible 10x from $4bn to $40bn+ if commercial milestones like a binding PPA and OEM contract are achieved, though near-term financials are weak and execution risk is high.
  • •NuScale is the only SMR technology approved by the U.S. NRC, with Standard Design Approval for the 50MWe module in 2020, Design Certification in 2023, and a 77MWe module approval in 2025.
  • •Q1 2026 revenue was only $0.6m, down from $13.4m a year earlier, reflecting completion of RoPower licensing work.
  • •NuScale ended Q1 2026 with about $1.0bn in liquidity, increasing to over $1.2bn by early May 2026.
  • •In September 2025, TVA and ENTRA1 announced a collaborative agreement to deploy up to 6GW of NuScale SMR capacity across TVA’s seven-state region.
  • •NuScale uses conventional low-enriched uranium fuel below 5% LEU, avoiding HALEU supply constraints that affect competitors.
  • •The company has 352.6m fully diluted shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026, with ongoing ATM dilution.
  • •Management indicated that a future OEM agreement could be cash-positive at signing, with staged payments from ENTRA1.
  • •The RoPower project in Romania uses NuScale technology and completed Phase 2 FEED work in late 2025, but still needs pre-EPC financing.
Read time 15 min
Length 15,282 chars
Category finance
Ideas
Outlier Capital Substack author, Outlier Capital
Author believes NuScale can deliver 10x returns if it becomes the first scaled commercial SMR platform, driven by NRC approval, conventional fuel, and a large TVA catalyst. Despite minimal revenue, th
Author believes NuScale can deliver 10x returns if it becomes the first scaled commercial SMR platform, driven by NRC approval, conventional fuel, and a large TVA catalyst. Despite minimal revenue, the balance sheet is strong and the regulatory moat is significant.
SMR HIGH
More from Outlier Capital
5 Physical AI Enablers That Could 10x Your Portfolio – The $26 Trillion Secret Wall Street Is Whispering
May 19, 12:45
Small 100x Stock Portfolio — Second Week of May 2026 Update
May 17, 16:02
Main 10x Stock Portfolio — Second Week of May 2026 Update
May 17, 12:45
Aeluma ($ALMU): This 10x AI Photonics Multibagger Is Still on the Launchpad — Why the Market Is Overreacting to a Tiny Q3 Miss
May 15, 12:45
Ouster ($OUST): A Credible 10x Bet on the Eyes of Physical AI
May 13, 12:45

This newsletter, published May 22, 2026, features Outlier Capital discussing SMR. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Outlier Capital  · Tickers: SMR