Americans, The Fed, And Bond Markets Agree on Inflation
Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· August 04, 2026 at 09:29
· ⏱ 11 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Inflation is not under control because years of money printing, chronic deficits, and a debt-trapped Fed make aggressive rate hikes impossible; bond markets, households, and the Fed are converging on the conclusion that inflation is persistent, which means structurally elevated long-term yields and continued demand for inflation hedges like gold.
•The 30-year Treasury yield is above 5.2% for the first time in twenty years, according to Peter Schiff.
•Russia banned diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries, cutting off more than 10% of global supply and sending diesel margins to records.
•Longer-term Treasury yields have climbed as investors demand greater compensation for the risk that inflation remains elevated for years.
•FOMC minutes show the Committee sees inflation as more persistent than expected, with most members agreeing further tightening could be necessary.
•The article argues that without aggressive rate hikes inflation could head for double digits, but the Fed is trapped by enormous debt levels that make serious tightening politically and financially explosive.
•Gold held $4,000 support and rose on the day, reasserting its safe-haven and inflation-hedge status.
The article frames gold as the escape hatch from Fed policy and quotes Peter Schiff saying gold held $4K support and rose, reasserting its safe-haven and inflation-hedge status; persistent inflation a
The article frames gold as the escape hatch from Fed policy and quotes Peter Schiff saying gold held $4K support and rose, reasserting its safe-haven and inflation-hedge status; persistent inflation and trapped Fed policy support gold demand.
Risk: Hawkish surprise from the Fed or a sharp real-rate spike could pressure gold despite the inflationary thesis.
The article says longer-term Treasury yields have climbed as investors demand greater inflation compensation and doubts the Fed can deliver 2% inflation; higher long-term yields imply lower prices for
The article says longer-term Treasury yields have climbed as investors demand greater inflation compensation and doubts the Fed can deliver 2% inflation; higher long-term yields imply lower prices for long-duration Treasuries.
Risk: A flight-to-safety bid or sudden recession fears could push yields down and TLT up despite persistent inflation.
This newsletter, published August 04, 2026,
features Quoth the Raven
discussing GLD, TLT.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.