One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· August 03, 2026 at 10:33
· ⏱ 7 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
June's decline in the PCEPI is a misleading signal because it mostly reflects a reversal of an energy price shock, not a return to price stability. With nominal spending still growing near 6.5% year-over-year versus roughly 4.5% consistent with 2% inflation, the Fed should not declare victory, implying rates may stay restrictive for longer than markets hope.
•The PCEPI fell 0.1% in June, the first monthly decline since April 2020, after a 0.5% increase in May.
•Despite the June dip, PCEPI rose at an annualized rate of 4.4% over the past six months and is 3.7% higher than a year ago.
•Core PCEPI increased 0.1% in June and is up at a 3.8% annualized rate over six months and 3.3% year-over-year.
•June's decline was driven by energy: Middle East conflict disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but resumed tanker traffic pushed crude prices sharply lower.
•Nominal spending grew at a 7.9% annualized rate in Q2 2026 and was up 6.5% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, versus a 4.1% average annual rate from 2015 through 2019.
•The FOMC held its target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three dissents favoring a quarter-point hike; Chair Kevin Warsh warned against declaring victory based on one month of data.