Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· May 19, 2026 at 19:06
· ⏱ 11 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Rising Treasury yields are forcing Washington to de-escalate the Iran war because the US fiscal position is too weak to sustain a prolonged conflict. The author argues the Fed will eventually suppress yields through stealth QE, leading to currency debasement and inflation, which will benefit gold, silver, and mining stocks while crushing ordinary Americans through stagflation.
•The 10-year Treasury yield is the single most important price in global finance, and its sharp rise is destabilizing the system.
•The US entered the Iran war with annual deficits approaching $2 trillion and interest expense on debt already a major budget item.
•War spending, oil price shocks, and weak foreign demand for Treasuries create an unsustainable debt trajectory.
•The Fed may raise rates again to defend credibility before eventually resorting to yield suppression via stealth QE.
•The author predicts a brutal stagflationary environment: slowing growth, rising borrowing costs, and stubborn inflation.
•Gold, silver, and mining stocks are expected to benefit once the Fed's liquidity hits the market after an initial deleveraging sell-off.