I Avoid Tech, But Here's One Overlooked AI Trade: Harris Kupperman
Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· June 01, 2026 at 11:14
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that while most high-profile AI trades (semiconductors, datacenters, power equipment) are overvalued and cyclical with short-term bottlenecks, there is an overlooked macro trend with sustainable tailwinds that trades at a single-digit adjusted cashflow multiple. The author avoids tech and missed the AI boom, but identifies this alternative as a potential beneficiary of AI adoption. For markets, this suggests value may exist outside the obvious AI winners, but no specific securities are named.
•AI may cause massive youth unemployment as corporate efficiencies replace junior white-collar workers, leading to a 'Permanent Underclass.'
•Datacenter capex has reached hundreds of billions, but monthly revenues are only a few billion and 'deeply negative' economically.
•Hyperscalers will continue building datacenters despite negative economics, driven by competitive dynamics.
•AI has become indispensable to the author's investment process, despite frustrations with hallucination and error.
•The author missed the tech trade (semiconductors, power equipment) due to cyclicality and short-term bottlenecks, but has no regrets.
•The overlooked trade has 'single-digit adjusted cashflow multiple' and 'real and sustainable macro tailwinds' that were accelerating before AI.