Quoth the Raven
· QTR’s Fringe Finance
· May 28, 2026 at 12:28
· ⏱ 5 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The U.S. economy faces a choice between a soft default through persistent inflation or a hard default via a financial crisis, with the soft default being more likely. This inflationary path will eventually drive gold to $10,000, but the journey will be rocky and volatile.
•Inflation is structurally above the Fed's target at 3.8%, nearly double the 2% objective, and no longer temporary.
•The Shiller P/E ratio stands at 42x, far above its historical mean of 17.3x, indicating extreme market vulnerability.
•Market capitalization relative to GDP exceeds 230%, levels historically associated with speculation and excess.
•Consumer delinquencies are surging: student loan, credit card, and auto loan defaults are at or near post-financial crisis highs.
•Despite economic weakness, the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.5% and the 30-year above 5%, reflecting fiscal concerns.
•Gold is projected to eventually reach $10,000, though the path will be volatile, as the most likely outcome is a 'crash upward' via inflation.
The author explicitly argues gold will eventually reach $10,000 as the preferred hedge against the likely soft default via inflation. This implies a long-term bullish thesis for gold ETFs like GLD.
The author explicitly argues gold will eventually reach $10,000 as the preferred hedge against the likely soft default via inflation. This implies a long-term bullish thesis for gold ETFs like GLD.
Risk: Gold's path is described as 'rocky and volatile'; short-term corrections are possible before the trend materializes.