Is China's soft power really rising, or is America's just crumbling?
Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· April 22, 2026 at 21:01
· ⏱ 20 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that the 'Chinamaxxing' trend reflects American youth dissatisfaction with U.S. dysfunction rather than genuine Chinese soft power, though there are real green shoots in micro-dramas and retail chains. For markets, this implies that Chinese consumer brands with global expansion (e.g., Miniso, Pop Mart, Luckin Coffee) may see organic growth, while the broader cultural influence of China remains limited by censorship and economic challenges.
•ReelShort, a Chinese micro-drama platform, surpassed 370 million downloads and $700 million in revenue, with the U.S. generating $58 million monthly in-app revenue in 2025.
•Ne Zha 2 earned over 99% of its revenue in mainland China, and Black Myth: Wukong got over 75% of its Steam sales from China, showing limited global cultural reach.
•Tourism to China remains far below pre-pandemic levels, and the number of Americans studying in China has collapsed, contrasting with full rebounds in Japan and South Korea.
•Chongqing, with its cyberpunk urban landscape and old streets, is attracting genuine tourist interest, unlike the sterile appeal of Shenzhen.
•China's youth unemployment is significantly worse than the U.S., even after government redefinition, and the country faces comparable income inequality and higher education cost burdens.
•The 'Chinamaxxing' trend is largely a reaction to American problems (crime, homelessness, lack of public transit) and not an endorsement of Chinese life, as few Americans actually move to China.
Article mentions Popmart as a Chinese collectibles retailer appearing in global malls, benefiting from the growing fascination with Chinese aesthetics and pop culture.
Article mentions Popmart as a Chinese collectibles retailer appearing in global malls, benefiting from the growing fascination with Chinese aesthetics and pop culture.
Risk: Fad-driven demand; reliance on blind-box model may face regulatory scrutiny.
Article notes Miniso stores are appearing in global malls, selling toys and collectibles, indicating successful international expansion as a Chinese retail brand.
Article notes Miniso stores are appearing in global malls, selling toys and collectibles, indicating successful international expansion as a Chinese retail brand.
Risk: Global consumer spending slowdown or trade barriers could hinder growth.
Luckin Coffee is named as a high-quality drink shop with immediate appeal overseas, part of a broader trend of Chinese food and design making inroads globally.
Luckin Coffee is named as a high-quality drink shop with immediate appeal overseas, part of a broader trend of Chinese food and design making inroads globally.
Risk: Intense competition from Starbucks and local chains; potential quality consistency issues.
This newsletter, published April 22, 2026,
features Noah Smith
discussing POP, MNSO, LKNCY.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.