What if a few AI companies end up with all the money and power?
Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· April 13, 2026 at 00:50
· ⏱ 5 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that the AI industry is no longer in a bubble because agentic coding has become a massive revenue driver, with Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise sales. He warns that a cybersecurity arms race could create a powerful moat for leading AI companies, potentially leading to extreme economic concentration and inequality, rather than the widely feared risks of superintelligence or job displacement.
•Agentic coding — where AI builds apps and runs analysis autonomously — has become the killer app, generating enormous revenue.
•Anthropic has likely surpassed OpenAI in revenue due to its enterprise focus, while OpenAI focused on consumers.
•Anthropic's computing costs are much lower than OpenAI's, putting it on track to turn a profit faster.
•Anthropic delayed its new model Mythos because it was too good at hacking; the model found critical vulnerabilities missed for decades.
•Cybersecurity is inherently adversarial, forcing defenders to pay top dollar for the latest AI models, creating a profit moat.
•The expansion of AI into adversarial fields like quant trading, litigation, and fraud prevention could create additional revenue sources and moats, leading to extreme inequality if a few companies dominate.