Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· June 24, 2026 at 09:01
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that while the United States maintains a narrow lead in artificial intelligence (8-10 months per private tests), China is decisively winning the parallel race in electric technology—covering EVs, batteries, solar, and grid infrastructure. This divergence implies that long-term global power shifts may hinge on mastery of electrification, a domain where China has invested heavily and the U.S. has not yet prioritized.
•A 2006 Chinese state TV series, 'The Rise of the Great Powers,' was based on Paul Kennedy's thesis that nations rise by mastering the era's key technologies.
•Kennedy's list of transformative technologies includes gunpowder, steam, combustion engines, semiconductors, computers, and the internet.
•The U.S. currently leads in AI, but private NIST tests show the American lead is 8-10 months, with Chinese models falling further behind on private benchmarks despite strong open-source scores.
•China is dominating the 'electric technology' revolution (implicitly EVs, batteries, solar, and grid), which the author identifies as one of three major tech shifts alongside AI and biotech.
•The article suggests the U.S. is failing to recognize the strategic importance of electrification, unlike China's coordinated state and private-sector efforts.