Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· May 11, 2026 at 08:36
· ⏱ 15 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that despite the global rise of authoritarianism, autocratic regimes are losing actual wars (Syria, Iran's proxies, Russia in Ukraine) because defenders have a moral advantage, democracies cooperate more effectively, and attackers rely on brute force rather than technological innovation. The article carries no explicit trade ideas but implies that defense innovation—particularly drone warfare—and geopolitical shifts may create long-term opportunities for companies in advanced military technology, though no specific tickers are named.
•Freedom House’s 2026 report is subtitled “The Growing Shadow of Autocracy” and V-DEM’s 2026 report is subtitled “Unraveling the Democratic Era?”, both documenting a global decline in freedom.
•The Assad regime in Syria collapsed in late 2024 after over a decade of brutal civil war, aided by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
•Hezbollah suffered a catastrophic defeat by Israel in 2024, and Iran’s network of proxies largely collapsed.
•Russia’s estimated losses in Ukraine exceed 350,000 killed and 1.4 million wounded by end of 2025; current monthly casualties are over 30,000.
•Ukraine is killing roughly 5 Russians for every Ukrainian lost, according to some estimates, and is producing several million drones per year.
•In April 2026, Russia suffered a net loss of territory (113 square kilometers) for the first time since August 2024, according to The Economist.
•Putin scaled down the annual Victory Day parade due to Ukrainian drone threats and asked Trump to arrange a temporary ceasefire.
•The author identifies three reasons tyrants lose wars: defenders’ moral advantage (fighting for home), greater cooperation among democracies vs. personalist autocracies, and technological superiority (Ukraine’s drone innovation vs. Russia’s warrior-culture emphasis).