Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· May 08, 2026 at 06:22
· ⏱ 17 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that Barack Obama was a successful president, particularly on domestic policy, despite inflated expectations from both left and right. It concludes that his achievements in stimulus, healthcare reform, and financial regulation were substantial, while his foreign policy record was mixed. There are no direct market or trade implications.
•The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 was a fiscal stimulus larger as a percentage of GDP than equivalent efforts in other rich countries, and its borrowing exceeded that of the New Deal.
•Unemployment and underemployment combined hit only 17% during the Great Recession, compared to 25% unemployment in the Great Depression, and GDP recovery took 6-7 years versus 11 years.
•Obamacare reduced the number of uninsured Americans significantly and gained popularity over time, though it failed to restrain healthcare cost growth.
•Dodd-Frank created new regulatory agencies and the Volcker Rule; the banking sector remained stable during the COVID shock with no wave of defaults, and business formation increased after implementation.
•DACA protected hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, and the Clean Power Plan spurred state-level renewable energy adoption.
•On foreign policy, Obama successfully ended the War on Terror (killed bin Laden, drew down Iraq/Afghanistan), but his weak response to Russia’s 2014 seizure of Ukraine encouraged further aggression, and his engagement-based China policy failed to counter Xi’s nationalist turn.
•The article cites Gallup polling showing Obama remains far more popular than Trump, Biden, Bush, or Clinton.
•Obama’s domestic accomplishments (ARRA, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank) are described as more progressive than any Democratic president since LBJ, achieved in just two years despite the filibuster.