Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· May 19, 2026 at 08:19
· ⏱ 15 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that drone-centric warfare has rendered traditional militaries obsolete, with cost-effective AI-guided drones replacing tanks, artillery, and infantry. This shift implies massive strategic advantages for countries like China that control the supply chain for batteries and electric motors, while traditional defense contractors like Rheinmetall face obsolescence. Markets should watch for disruption in defense spending and supply chain vulnerabilities.
•Ukraine now uses ~60,000 FPV drones per day, up from a few thousand a year earlier.
•Drones cost roughly $500 each versus a Rheinmetall tank at ~$5 million and a 155mm artillery shell at ~$4,000.
•96% of Russian casualties in recent months are estimated to be caused by drones.
•Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones last year; the article claims China could produce 4 billion.
•NATO's Hedgehog 2025 exercise in Estonia resulted in a mock destruction of two battalions in half a day by a single Ukrainian drone team.
•Moscow was hit by over 1,000 Ukrainian drones, causing widespread damage and chaos.
•China controls the vast majority of global lithium-ion battery and rare earth electric motor production, key drone components.
The article explicitly mocks Rheinmetall's CEO for dismissing Ukrainian drone innovation, then contrasts a $500 drone with a ~$5 million Rheinmetall tank, arguing that drones are 'three orders of magn
The article explicitly mocks Rheinmetall's CEO for dismissing Ukrainian drone innovation, then contrasts a $500 drone with a ~$5 million Rheinmetall tank, arguing that drones are 'three orders of magnitude more versatile' and that a day's drone production can destroy a year's tank output. This directly challenges Rheinmetall's core product line and suggests structural obsolescence.
Risk: Rheinmetall may pivot to drone production or counter-drone systems, but the cost structure and industrial base are heavily tilted toward traditional platforms.