Trading Post August 5, 2026 - One Buy, One Sale, One Reason
Michael Burry
· Cassandra Unchained
· August 05, 2026 at 19:49
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Flutter's U.S. gambling weakness is being driven by prediction-market competition, not just a cyclical slowdown: U.S. EBITDA collapsed 70% to $119M, estimates were cut, and leverage is set to rise from 3.7x to 4.3x. This sets up likely bad news for DraftKings' upcoming earnings and means online betting incumbents face a structural threat from Kalshi and the broader prediction-market sector.
•Flutter's U.S. gambling EBITDA fell 70% to $119 million, while International EBITDA rose 10% to $2.3 billion.
•Flutter cut full-year estimates, and leverage is expected to rise from 3.7x to 4.3x versus a 2.5x target.
•Flutter CEO Peter Jackson is stepping down after 9 years and will be replaced by Dan Taylor, who is coming from the stronger international side.
•Flutter's stock fell about $15 to near $90, dragging DraftKings lower; DraftKings reports tomorrow and is likely to miss as well.
•Prediction markets are pressuring incumbents, with Kalshi now running $39.7 billion in annual volume.
Read time1 min
Length1,157 chars
Categoryfinance
Ideas
Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management; subject of The Big Short
Article quantifies Flutter's U.S. EBITDA drop of 70% to $119M, estimate cuts, and rising leverage from 3.7x to 4.3x versus the 2.5x target, all driven by prediction-market competition hitting FanDuel'
Article quantifies Flutter's U.S. EBITDA drop of 70% to $119M, estimate cuts, and rising leverage from 3.7x to 4.3x versus the 2.5x target, all driven by prediction-market competition hitting FanDuel's sportsbook.
Risk: International EBITDA growth and new CEO Dan Taylor's international background could help offset U.S. weakness; a faster U.S. recovery would negate the bearish read.
Michael BurryFounder, Scion Asset Management; subject of The Big Short
Article explicitly says DraftKings reports tomorrow and 'this report likely means DraftKings will miss as well' after Flutter's weak U.S. sportsbook numbers and Kalshi's $39.7 billion annual volume sh
Article explicitly says DraftKings reports tomorrow and 'this report likely means DraftKings will miss as well' after Flutter's weak U.S. sportsbook numbers and Kalshi's $39.7 billion annual volume show structural pressure on incumbents.
Risk: DraftKings could still beat if it benefits from iGaming strength or disciplined promotion spend, and the bearish setup may already be partially priced in after the sector selloff.
This newsletter, published August 05, 2026,
features Michael Burry
discussing FLUT, DKNG.
2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.