Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· April 20, 2026 at 08:07
· ⏱ 2 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author agrees with Brent Donnelly's observation that the market is more concerned about a shortage of 'tokens' than a shortage of oil. The piece highlights the difficulty and high risk associated with trading the geopolitical situation in Iran, citing contradictory information, insider trading, and significant weekend gap risk.
•The market's focus has shifted from oil shortages to 'token' shortages.
•Trading the war in Iran is considered to have little edge due to noise and insider activity.
•Significant weekend gap risk exists in the Iran conflict, as demonstrated by recent escalations involving merchant ships.
Read time2 min
Length2,497 chars
Categorymacro
Ideas
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Gold position held as a hedge against Iran escalation risk; the author remains long despite weaker relative performance versus equities.