Sivers Semiconductors: Verifying the Thesis After a 2,100% Run in Six Months

Damnang · Damnang’s Substack · May 27, 2026 at 08:39 · ⏱ 9 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that Sivers Semiconductors' 2,100% surge is justified by its unique role as a multi-wavelength laser array supplier for the external light source bottleneck in co-packaged optics (CPO) for AI datacenter networks. It evaluates whether potential production revenue from multiple customer engagements can support the ~$2.5B market cap, concluding the stock is expensive but that dismissing it entirely would ignore its technology position and customer traction. For markets, the thesis highlights the growing scarcity of laser sources in the CPO era and the potential for small-cap suppliers to re-rate if they convert engagements to revenue.
  • •Sivers has risen 2,104% in six months to SEK 86.85, with a market cap ~$2.5B and trailing P/S ~80x.
  • •The core product is an 8-lambda O-band CW DFB laser chipset delivering 65mW+ per channel uncooled, targeting CPO External Light Source (ELS) arrays.
  • •Customer engagements span Ayar Labs (CPO optical I/O), POET (CPO ELS), O-Net/Enablence (CPO ELS module), Jabil (1.6T pluggable LRO), a strategic LiDAR customer, and a Fortune 100 wearable customer.
  • •Competitors QD Laser (5-16mW per channel) and Aeluma (R&D revenue, $1.2M in FY26 Q3) are further from production revenue conversion.
  • •NVIDIA secured multi-billion purchase commitments with Lumentum and Coherent for EML and single CW DFB, tightening merchant CW supply and highlighting laser source scarcity.
  • •Potential catalysts include PCAOB alignment, a potential Nasdaq dual listing, MSCI Small Cap inclusion, and an expanded share base from directed share issues.
Read time 9 min
Length 9,834 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author presents Sivers as closest to production revenue among small-cap SiPho light source companies, with multiple customer engagements across CPO, pluggable, LiDAR, wearable, and defense. Despite hi
Author presents Sivers as closest to production revenue among small-cap SiPho light source companies, with multiple customer engagements across CPO, pluggable, LiDAR, wearable, and defense. Despite high valuation, the thesis hinges on conversion of engagements to production, and the stock is a direct play on the CPO laser source bottleneck. Risk: Pre-revenue company with cash burn and financial restatements; current market cap already prices in significant production success.
SIVEF
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author notes QD Laser outputs 5-16mW per channel, which has not been enough to secure a CPO ELS production customer, putting it behind Sivers in the race for CPO light source contracts.
Author notes QD Laser outputs 5-16mW per channel, which has not been enough to secure a CPO ELS production customer, putting it behind Sivers in the race for CPO light source contracts. Risk: Could improve specs or find niche applications; negative stance is relative to Sivers' positioning.
6613.T
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author states Aeluma's FY26 Q3 revenue of $1.2M came mainly from R&D contracts, and its path to production revenue is less visible than Sivers, indicating a longer timeline to commercial traction.
Author states Aeluma's FY26 Q3 revenue of $1.2M came mainly from R&D contracts, and its path to production revenue is less visible than Sivers, indicating a longer timeline to commercial traction. Risk: Aeluma's III-V-on-Si approach may offer long-term advantages if technical hurdles are overcome.
ALMU
Damnang Substack author, Damnang’s Substack
Author highlights that NVIDIA secured multi-billion purchase commitments with Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent for EML and single CW DFB, and notes that merchant CW supply is getting tight. Lumentum is a
Author highlights that NVIDIA secured multi-billion purchase commitments with Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent for EML and single CW DFB, and notes that merchant CW supply is getting tight. Lumentum is a primary supplier for the current 800G/1.6T pluggable transition and benefits from the broader optical bottleneck. Risk: Large-cap with diverse portfolio; Sivers-specific thesis does not directly translate to Lumentum outperformance.
LITE
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This newsletter, published May 27, 2026, features Damnang discussing SIVEF, 6613.T, ALMU, LITE. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Damnang  · Tickers: SIVEF, 6613.T, ALMU, LITE