Marvell Part 2: After a 2x Move, How Much Higher Can It Go?
Damnang
· Damnang’s Substack
· May 24, 2026 at 09:04
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Marvell has already doubled since the author's first piece, but further upside depends on Q1 FY27 revenue proving acceleration beyond narrative. The article argues that optical interconnect, memory interconnect, and next-gen ASIC design signals remain unpriced catalysts, making the stock's next leg contingent on actual revenue beats and not just multiple expansion.
•Marvell reported FY26 Q4 revenue of $2.219B, beating guidance midpoint by $19M, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.80.
•Data center revenue crossed $6B for the first time in FY26, growing 46% YoY, and the custom business doubled during the year.
•FY27 guidance implies ~$11B in revenue (+30% YoY), with data center growth of ~40% and interconnect growth of +50% or more.
•Q1 FY27 (May 27) guide midpoint is $2.4B, nearly matching consensus; the key test is whether Marvell delivers an acceleration signal beyond the headline number.
•The stock nearly doubled between the FY26 Q3 and Q4 prints, driven by 18 design wins and >10% of the $75B lifetime revenue funnel already locked.
•Author notes that from here, the move must be backed by actual revenue numbers, not narrative, and that multiple rerating has already occurred.
The article builds a bullish case for Marvell based on strong FY26 results, accelerating data center revenue, and uncounted catalysts (optical interconnect, memory interconnect, next-gen ASIC). Author
The article builds a bullish case for Marvell based on strong FY26 results, accelerating data center revenue, and uncounted catalysts (optical interconnect, memory interconnect, next-gen ASIC). Author states catalysts for further upside are still present with the condition that revenue numbers confirm the narrative.
Risk: If Q1 FY27 print fails to show sequential acceleration or guidance disappoints, the stock may pull back after a 2x run. Valuation re-rating already priced in expectations.