Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· March 09, 2026 at 13:51
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author highlights that a coming oil shock will be the most significant macro dynamic affecting global economies. They observe that US stock and bond markets currently seem too complacent about the potential negative implications.
•The biggest macro dynamic ahead will be an oil shock.
•US stock and bond markets appear unusually sanguine about the implications.
•The author notes that predicting the outcomes of wars is difficult as they are often driven by political dynamics rather than macroeconomics.