Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 06, 2026 at 11:24
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
=== SUMMARY ===
•The US labor market is stagnant ("frozen"), with job growth hovering just above zero, soft hiring, and low firing rates.
•The economy is currently dependent on consumer dissaving (drawing down savings) to maintain spending levels. The author posits this dynamic is reliant on a persistent wealth effect, which will likely require future dovish monetary/fiscal support ("Easy Street policies").
Summary
The author discusses the persistence of a 'frozen' labor market, characterized by low job growth and turnover. Due to a government shutdown delaying the official employment report, analysis relies on alternative data sources, with some survey data potentially offering a 'glimmer of hope' for the future.
•The labor market continues to show low job growth and turnover.
•The official employment report is unavailable due to a government shutdown.
•Analysts must turn to other data sources to understand current labor market conditions.
•The author notes a potential 'glimmer of hope' in recent survey data.