Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· July 01, 2026 at 10:29
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that strong headline payrolls numbers are misleading because informal sector job creation is collapsing, driven by ongoing demographic decline. This suggests the labor market is weaker than it appears, with potential implications for consumer spending and inflation that markets may be underestimating.
•Recent payrolls numbers have been perceived as strong, indicating labor market improvement.
•Informal sector job creation is collapsing, contradicting the positive payrolls narrative.
•The collapse is attributed to continued demographic decline, which is a structural headwind.