Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· April 29, 2026 at 10:41
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that as oil prices rise again, central bankers are caught in a difficult position. Believing their economies are too weak to sustain interest rate hikes, their most probable response is to remain inactive and hope the inflationary pressure from oil is temporary and resolves itself.
•Oil prices are rising back to previous highs, presenting a new inflation shock.
•Central bankers perceive their economies as too fragile to handle interest rate hikes at this time.
•The most likely policy response from central banks will be to do nothing and hope the oil-driven inflation subsides on its own.