The Global Production Bullwhip Begins

Bob Elliott · Nonconsensus · April 23, 2026 at 11:05 · ⏱ 4 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author observes that recent global PMI data indicates a surge in manufacturing. This is happening as producers rush to increase output ahead of anticipated price hikes and supply chain problems, even while overall end-user demand is showing signs of weakening. Additionally, the author notes a continued lack of clear economic data on the global impact of the Iran war.
  • Global PMIs suggest a surge in manufacturing as producers scramble to increase output.
  • This production increase is a response to expected rising prices and supply chain challenges.
  • The manufacturing surge is occurring despite a broad softening in underlying end demand.
  • There is a continued lack of hard data showing the economic ripple effects of the Iran war.
Read time 4 min
Length 4,355 chars
Category finance
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