Thematic Portfolio Update: From Oil Shock to Growth Shock [Update]
Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· April 29, 2026 at 19:49
· ⏱ 1 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author highlights a significant divergence in market pricing, where stocks reflect an optimistic 'all clear' scenario despite rising oil prices and bond yields suggesting potential economic pain ahead. This follows a period where the market's pricing of future growth has surged dramatically.
•Market pricing for future growth has surged at a near-historic pace since the author initiated a related trade.
•A significant divergence exists between equity markets, which are optimistic, and bond and oil markets, which suggest future economic pain.
•The surge in growth expectations priced into stocks is occurring alongside new highs in oil prices and rising bond yields.