Market Meltdown, Crypto vs Equities, & Is This Bounce A Buy?
Speakers
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Summary
Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss the recent crypto market meltdown, arguing that bearish sentiment overshot and that Bitcoin and Solana are near attractive value levels. They debate whether the bounce is a buy, with Avi more bullish on equities and crypto, while Jonah prefers crypto over equities and sees range-trade opportunities in L1 tokens. The conversation also covers AI-driven equity profitability, Meta and Google, BNB/HYPE/Aster, Monad, and a macro scenario where the Ukraine war ends and floods commodity markets, lowering inflation and rates.
- Crypto selloff viewed as equity-driven; bearish sentiment may be overdone.
- Avi and Jonah both see Bitcoin near bottom and are nibbling/buying.
- Solana discussed as a range commodity with value support around 126-128.
- Equities: Avi bullish on AI-driven profitability; Jonah cautious and prefers crypto.
- Meta and Google discussed as AI/platform beneficiaries.
- BNB, HYPE, and Aster debated with differing views on CZ's commitment.
- Monad criticized as another commoditized L1 without applications.
- Macro: Ukraine war ending could pressure oil, gas, and wheat, lowering inflation.
Ideas
Bitcoin bottom forming; buy for 50% upside.
Avi argues the crypto selloff was primarily an equity-market selloff, not a crypto-specific cycle top. Bearish sentiment overshot. Bitcoin found a demand zone around 80k and bounced hard, old OG wallets have stopped selling below 100k, and fears about DATs or MicroStrategy dumping BTC are a red herring. He thinks current levels are the beginning of the bottom; if you buy here and wait three months he expects to be up 50%, with a choppy path that may retest 87 before moving higher.
Nibbling Bitcoin here; expect move higher.
Jonah is nibbling Bitcoin around 85-86k and does not think it goes much lower. He sees many people who missed the post-FTX runup now asking about buying, similar to investors buying the S&P 500 at 2300 during COVID. He notes Bitcoin bounced hard off 80k, likely grinds toward 100k, and sees a genuine trend reversal with NASDAQ bottoming.
Equities strong; AI lifts profitability.
Avi thinks equity fears are overblown. Earnings have been strong, equity markets are looking good, and the market is climbing a wall of worry. He sees AI rapidly boosting profitability per employee, allowing companies to cut costs and lift returns, and argues profits can go through the roof before any social revolution, so he views equities as very strong.
Solana at strong value level; scale in.
Avi is bullish on tokenized stocks adoption, pointing to Robinhood launching tokenized stocks and crypto becoming an internet-like backbone for financial infrastructure. If tokenized equities begin trading on Ethereum or Solana, he expects those chains to go up a lot.
Wait on equities; prefer crypto.
Jonah is cautious on equities here: charts look weird, most single names are at highs, and he is uncomfortable putting large capital to work in the stock market. He would rather wait on equities and allocate to crypto.
Google strongest; Gemini restores entry point.
Avi likes Google because it was the strongest large-cap, barely fell during the selloff, and tends to rebound hard when strong stocks lead. He also argues Gemini 3 has put Google back as the consumer entry point to the internet, better than ChatGPT, and that Google could go on a generational run and potentially double as AI fears shift from Google to OpenAI.
Ukraine peace floods commodities; short.
Jonah sees the Ukraine war potentially ending as a major macro kicker. If Russian oil, gas, and Ukrainian wheat flow back into global markets, the world will be awash in commodities, sending inflation much lower and forcing rates down. He views this as bullish for everything, implying downside for crude oil, natural gas, and wheat prices.
Monad is a ghost; avoid.
Jonah does not understand the point of Monad. He sees it as another L1 with no real applications, created by VCs to provide a short leg for their longs, and argues infrastructure/block space is commoditized. He says show him the applications before it can rally.
Trade SOL/ETH as range commodities.
Jonah argues block space is commoditized and L1 infrastructure does not capture much value; Solana and Ethereum are now commodities. He would trade them in a range: buy Solana at the current weekly support and sell above 200. He is less specific on Ethereum but includes it in the same commodity-range framework.
Trade SOL/ETH as range commodities.
Jonah argues block space is commoditized and L1 infrastructure does not capture much value; Solana and Ethereum are now commodities. He would trade them in a range: buy Solana at the current weekly support and sell above 200. He is less specific on Ethereum but includes it in the same commodity-range framework.
Aster: CZ vehicle with real buybacks.
Avi sees a credible bull case for Aster: it is a CZ-controlled vehicle with real buybacks, and CZ cares about his legacy after jail/pardon, so he is unlikely to run a pump-and-dump. Avi thinks CZ may be going for a 50-100% increase, making Aster a 'most hated rally' and a token that has traded like someone cares.
Avoid Aster; CZ may cut it.
Jonah is skeptical of Aster because he doubts CZ is uniquely committed to it. He points to CZ's history with BNB-chain projects like Pancake Swap, which he promoted and then faded, and argues CZ will cut Aster if it loses traction. He is not a buyer of Aster.
BNB benefits from Binance cash flows.
Jonah is bullish on BNB not because of CZ, but because Binance makes money hand over fist and is the largest BNB holder. He expects Binance to figure out how to deliver value back to BNB holders, making BNB a way to bet on Binance and CZ's legacy.
Shuffle is next MGM; buy.
Avi prefers Shuffle over Rollbit in the crypto casino/gaming space. He loves the founder, thinks Shuffle is like the next MGM, and notes Shuffle has been going up while Rollbit has been going down, so he would reverse if that relative performance changes.
Buy HYPE over Aster on better UX.
Jonah prefers Hyperliquid over Aster after testing both. He says Hyperliquid has better UX, feels more decentralized, and that the 3:1 FDV ratio between HYPE and Aster is fair or even generous to Aster, so he would be a buyer of HYPE rather than Aster.
Meta ad business plus AR glasses upside.
Avi owns Meta from lower levels and remains bullish. He thinks Meta has the best ad business, AI improves ad targeting, and its social graph is defensible unlike Google search. He views the market as wrongly punishing Meta for AR glasses spend and for not having a state-of-the-art LLM; he expects AR glasses to become the next major platform and LLMs to commoditize, giving Meta significant upside at a lower market cap than Google.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published November 24, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, SPY, SOL, ETH, GOOG, WTI, UNG, WEAT, MONAD, ASTER, BNB, SHFL, HYPE, META. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg · Tickers: BTC, SPY, SOL, ETH, GOOG, WTI, UNG, WEAT, MONAD, ASTER, BNB, SHFL, HYPE, META