Is the semiconductor fear market over? Why only the Korean stock market fell excessively | Lee Hak-joo, Hana Securities Wonju Branch Deputy Manager [Double Crew]

Summary

Lee Hak-joo, deputy manager at Hana Securities, argues that the sharp decline in Korean semiconductor stocks is excessive and stems from temporary supply/demand factors rather than fundamental problems. He compares global indices, finds Korea’s drop outsized, and uses historical drawdown data to suggest a rebound is likely. With big tech capex still rising and AI demand intact, he views Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as a clear buying opportunity.

• Korean market drop is overdone compared to global peers due to ADR, rebalancing, and leverage-related flows.
• Historical KOSPI max drawdown shows 20–25% drops typically precede rebounds; systemic crisis-level drops (>30%) are unlikely now.
• Big tech capex continues to increase and funding ability remains strong, supporting AI and memory demand.
• Short-term noise like Apple’s memory price complaint and NY data center ban proposal are not structurally damaging.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are identified as the primary oversold names and a buy on the dip.
• Forced selling in shipbuilding and chemical stocks makes rotating away from leading semis riskier.
• Upcoming earnings season is expected to confirm the solid fundamentals behind the semiconductor thesis.