CONSIGNADO CLT CRESCE 140%: EXISTE RISCO PARA OS BANCOS?

Summary

Victor Schabbel, sócio da Ibiuna Investimentos, explains that rapid credit growth can precede portfolio deterioration and that delinquency ratios can hide the problem. He focuses on private payroll loans for CLT workers, which grew about 140% year over year while the stock of delinquent credits rose 220%. He expects a more challenging consumer-credit environment and weaker bank earnings with more provisions, though not a systemic crisis. He cites past episodes at Itaú and Banco do Brasil as cautionary parallels.

• Victor Schabbel distinguishes systemic credit crises from specific portfolio crises.
• He says delinquency ratios can be misleading when loan books are growing quickly.
• Private consignado CLT grew about 140% year over year and from R$45bn to R$113bn.
• Delinquent balances in that line grew about 220%, even with a roughly 8.6% delinquency ratio.
• His base case is a more challenging consumer credit environment, with weaker bank earnings and more provisions.
• He does not expect a systemic credit crisis; the best case is accommodation at higher delinquency.
• Banco do Brasil's agro problem is used as a recent example of delayed credit deterioration.
• Itaú's vehicle portfolio episode is used as a past example of managed portfolio stress.