Name: Markets more about getting rotations right this year, says Macro Risk Advisors' John Kolovos
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T21:20:34+00:00
Duration: 202 s

Speakers

John Kolovos — Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors

Summary

John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors discusses his S&P 500 base case near 7600 while emphasizing that 2026 is more about rotations and risk management. He warns that midterm elections could bring early-Q1 volatility and a 15-16% drawdown, with December lows as the key level. He favors low-beta stocks, sees tech vulnerability, expects gold and silver to pull back before another higher high, wants oil above 61, and monitors the dollar at major support.

Kolovos sees an S&P 500 base case around 7600 but stresses rotation and risk management.
He warns 6900 is a first short-term warning and December lows are the key risk-management level.
Midterm elections could bring early-Q1 volatility and a 15-16% drawdown.
He favors low-beta stocks and diversifying away from high-beta tech.
He views gold and silver as wave-three advances with sharp pullbacks to buy.
Oil needs to build value above 61 before he is interested.
The dollar is at major support and its next move is macro-critical.

Ideas

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 0:30

S&P drawdown risk before higher

He sees the S&P 500 short-term trend deteriorating after testing 6900, which is just the first warning. December lows are the key risk-management level; if those break, he thinks a topping process begins. He expects midterm-election-related volatility and a potential 15-16% drawdown in the early part of Q1 before the market pushes higher.

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 1:57

High-beta tech trends look vulnerable

Tech looks vulnerable, and high-beta tech stocks are starting to wobble with those trends extended. He wants to diversify away from that risk and prefers lower-beta tech over high-beta tech.

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 2:06

Buy low-beta stocks as rotation diversifier

He wants to start picking up low-beta stocks because low beta on a rate-of-return basis is at a negative two standard deviation level on a one-year basis. For long-only investors, ugly staples may be needed for diversification, and lower-beta tech is another alternative.

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 2:48

Buy gold and silver pullbacks

He views the parabolic move in gold and silver as a wave-three advance. He expects them to get hit hard and possibly fall about 50%, but says investors should buy those pullbacks because they should make another higher high. He thinks the broader commodity run will be done in a couple of years.

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 3:13

Oil needs to hold above 61

He is not yet convinced by the oil bounce; oil needs to build value above 61 before he would start thinking about it. The dollar's next move is also key from a macro standpoint.

John Kolovos Chief Market Strategist, Macro Risk Advisors 3:16

Dollar at major support level

The dollar is at a major support level, and he says what the dollar does going forward is key from a macro standpoint, especially for assessing oil and broader risk.

Markets more about getting rotations right this year, says Macro Risk Advisors' John Kolovos

Summary

Ideas

Up Next