US Treasury yields at 5% and AI pace-control debate: the stock market's 'strange reaction' that held up | Myung Min-jun, Seo Su-jin, Lee Ji-hwan

Summary

Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, argues that the AI speed-control debate is a temporary regulatory and competitive narrative rather than a true AI peak. He sees US equities as surprisingly resilient despite 5% 10-year Treasury yields, oil strength, and AI-related headlines, and views 5% long yields as likely near a ceiling. He recommends holding 20-30% cash and says Korean market supply-demand, especially in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, looks less bad after concentrated selling.

• AI speed-control debate analyzed as self-regulation and China-competition issue, not an ethical halt.
• AI momentum still seen intact; Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index should be viewed separately.
• US market held up despite 5% 10-year Treasury yield, oil above $100, and AI headlines.
• 10-year Treasury yield around 5% viewed as likely near a ceiling; Fed hikes could compress long yields.
• FOMC and BOJ events flagged as near-term macro risks; a neutral Fed hike may not hurt stocks.
• Korean supply-demand: individuals net sellers since July low and foreign selling concentrated around expiry.
• Lee Ji-hwan advises at least 20-30% cash and warns of options-expiry volatility in Big Tech and semiconductors.