SPCX lock-up risk: am I crazy for thinking the real test starts when the share supply goes 5x?

The community consensus is that SPCX’s artificially small float will expand 5x after the lock-up expires on January 27, leading to a severe price decline. The widely upvoted, blunt warnings (“drop like a fucking rock”) and explicit “I am” agreement that SpaceX is a bad company create a high-probability short opportunity ahead of the supply shock. Short SPCX into the lock-up expiration, betting that the valuation cannot sustain the flood of new shares given the community’s strong bearish conviction and contempt for the underlying company. Counter-arguments from the thread are minimal; the only risk is that the lock-up expiration is already priced in or that a short squeeze could occur if retail sentiment turns. However, the thread shows near-unanimous bearishness.