Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)

You’re mistaking “not declaring victory pre-Phase 3” for “no case.” The case is straightforward and testable: VK2735 is a dual GLP-1/GIP, yes, but early data already showed real pharmacology and real efficacy signals in both routes, including a meaningful oral signal in a short study window and a clear injectable dose effect; Phase 3 is already built like a registrational program (two 78-week studies, one fully enrolled at 4,650, plus the T2D study), which is what you do when FDA has already told you the path is conventional: long duration WL + safety + discontinuation, not “go run MACE/MASH first.” The “outcomes” point is backwards too: MACE/renal/MASH are lifecycle programs almost always done after approval at scale; they’re not prerequisites for taking share, because prescribers don’t choose drugs on CVOT PDFs when access, tolerability, supply, and persistence decide who stays treated. If you want to be scientific, the differentiator isn’t a magic receptor buzzword, it’s the Phase 3 readout on 78-week WL magnitude, GI AE profile, and AE-driven discontinuation at doses patients actually remain on; Viking is even running a maintenance regimen study because the commercial reality is patients modulate doses and cadence in the real world. If VK2735 can’t match the class on those hard endpoints, it fails. If it can, “me too” becomes irrelevant and the market rerates. That’s the whole debate.