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HITI (NASDAQ): a winning long-term choice, let's analyze it.
The key takeaway: HITI has become a far more compelling "compounder" than any of its peers in the sector.
The Q2 2026 figures are remarkable:
quarterly revenue of C$179.3M, up 26% year-over-year;
Adjusted EBITDA of C$13.9M, up 73% year-over-year;
adjusted EBITDA margin of 8%, an eight-quarter high;
operating income of C$6.1M, up 554% year-over-year;
positive net income for the quarter;
positive FCF, with C$13.4M generated over the last 12 months.
**Q3 could be the quarter that triggers a repricing: the preliminary guidance just announced points to new record highs for revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, with projected Y/Y growth of at least 30%, 27% and 43%**
At the same time, Canna Cabana maintains a market share of approximately 12% in Canada—rising to 14% if British Columbia is excluded.
This combination is far more significant than the simple fact that it is a "cannabis stock."
It is a business with a proven competitive position.
Canna Cabana generates roughly 2× the revenue per store of its competitors, while since the launch of the discount model in 2021, same-store sales have grown by 161%, versus a 7% decline for the average operator over the period cited by the company.
So we are not talking about a company that is waiting for legalization to perhaps become competitive.
The machine already exists.
And Germany changes the story quite significantly.
This is one of the things I believe the market is massively underestimating.
Remexian distributed 7.6 tonnes of medical cannabis in Germany in Q2, up 49% YoY and 21% sequentially, with record quarterly revenue of C$31.6M.
So you have:
* Canadian retail → German medical → additional international markets.
And this creates a very different profile from that of a simple Canadian retailer.
Germany is particularly interesting because the medical market can grow substantially without requiring recreational legalization.
And this brings us to my thesis: the market is mispricing HITI.
The July investor presentation is quite telling.
With approximately C$274M in market cap, C$64M of debt, and C$37M in cash, the company indicated:
* EV of approximately C$319M
* Annualized revenue of approximately C$717M
* Annualized Adjusted EBITDA of approximately C$56M
* EV/revenue of approximately 0.4×
* EV/Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 5.7×
* Trailing FCF of approximately C$13M
These are multiples I would normally associate with a company facing structural problems, mediocre growth, or a weak balance sheet.
HITI, however, is doing the opposite:
* revenue growth + EBITDA growth + geographic expansion + positive FCF + deleveraging.
And this is exactly the kind of disconnect that can lead to multiple expansion.
# The part I find most interesting: you don't even need U.S. legalization
This is perhaps the biggest difference compared with Trulieve.
With Trulieve, you have significant optionality from Florida/the U.S.
With HITI, you can build a much simpler thesis:
# Scenario A — No major U.S. reform
HITI continues to:
* gain market share in Canada;
* increase EBITDA;
* expand in Germany;
* enter the UK;
* increase FCF;
* allocate capital opportunistically.
If, over the next 3–5 years, the market simply re-rates the company to 8–10× EBITDA instead of roughly 5–6× EV/EBITDA, you already have significant upside from multiple expansion.
You don't need the “moonshot.”
# Scenario B — Germany + UK work
This is where the story changes.
Suppose, very simply, that HITI manages to increase annualized EBITDA from approximately C$56M today to:
**C$300M.**
If the market assigned it just a 10× EBITDA multiple, you would have:
**C$3 billion of EV.**
With relatively modest net debt, the equity value could approach that order of magnitude.
Compared with a market cap in the region of C$274M, that would represent a very significant revaluation.
And I'm not assuming “growth stock” multiples here.
A 10× EBITDA multiple for a growing company is not an unreasonable valuation.
# Scenario C — The real re-rating story
This is where I think the thesis becomes truly interesting.
Imagine HITI in 2030 with:
* Canada still dominant;
* 25%+ market share;
* Germany having become a meaningful platform;
* the UK up and running;
* EBITDA > C$100–150M;
* FCF > C$50–75M;
* a still relatively clean balance sheet;
* disciplined capital allocation.
At that point, HITI should no longer be valued as:
**“Canadian cannabis retailer.”**
It should be valued as:
**“International cannabis consumer platform.” + medical**
And the multiples could be completely different.
This is precisely the hidden re-rating potential I'm talking about.
# There is, however, one thing I would push back on slightly
In Q2, HITI invested working capital to support growth. This brought quarterly FCF down to C$1.5M, but CFO before working-capital changes reached C$8.8M, the highest level in seven quarters.
So I wouldn't read it as:
**FCF Q2 = C$1.5M → deterioration.**
I would read it as:
**We are deploying capital to fund growth, while the underlying ability to generate cash is improving.**
And above all, with High Tide, the market appears to be assigning less value to the operational quality the company has already demonstrated.
The key point is this:
**You don't need to be right about legalization to make money with HITI.**
You simply need to be right that EBITDA and FCF will continue to grow, and that sooner or later the market will stop assigning a 5–6× EBITDA multiple to a company growing at a double-digit rate.
If Germany + the UK + Switzerland + eventual international regulatory normalization come into play, you get additional optionality on top of that thesis—and potentially a 10× outcome over the long term.
**Company presentation :** [**https://hightideinc.com/presentation/**](https://hightideinc.com/presentation/)
* **Strengthened balance sheet**: The recent closing of C$40 million in senior secured credit facilities with the Bank of Montreal provides greater financial flexibility, a lower cost of capital, and the ability to fund growth without diluting shareholders.
* **Attractive valuation relative to results:** Despite consecutive record quarters and guidance that continues to beat expectations, the stock still trades at modest multiples compared with its growth profile and long-term potential. Many analysts see meaningful upside from current levels.
**Bottom line**
High Tide has repeatedly delivered in a tough industry: revenue growth, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, and steady market-share gains. With Canadian retail re-accelerating, Germany scaling rapidly, and a disciplined management team focused on execution, the disconnect between operational performance and market valuation still looks wide.The tide isn’t just rising — it’s building into a powerful wave. Investors positioned today may be well placed to benefit from one of the more compelling consolidation and internationalization stories in the cannabis sector.
As a long-term shareholder, I hope this post gave you some valuable insights.