u/WilliamBlack97AI

The author argues High Tide is mispriced at roughly 5-6x EV/EBITDA despite 26% YoY revenue growth, 73% YoY adjusted EBITDA growth, positive FCF and ~12% Canadian market share, because the market treats it as a structurally challenged cannabis retailer. The mechanism is multiple expansion: if the market re-rates HITI to 8-10x EBITDA over 3-5 years, or if Germany/UK expansion lifts annualized EBITDA toward C$300M, equity value could rise substantially without US legalization. Catalysts cited include Q3 preliminary guidance for record revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA (at least 30%/27%/43% YoY growth) and the C$40M BMO credit facility. Main stated risk is that Q2 FCF fell to C$1.5M due to working-capital investment, though the author frames this as growth funding rather than deterioration.