DD: $EXEL Short Thesis (gimme feedback)

Biostatrat · 2026-09-09T19:40:46+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - u/Biostatrat presents a bearish DD thesis on $EXEL, claiming the FDA-approved Handa generic for cabozantinib threatens Exelixis’ main revenue driver. - Key evidence: FDA granted full approval to Handa’s generic, Exelixis withdrew its lawsuit against Handa, and its citizen petition failed—all while Wall Street reportedly hasn’t connected these dots. - Quality assessment: Well-researched, sourced, and clearly argued speculation rather than pure noise, but it relies on market mispricing and rapid generic launch timing. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === EXEL - SHORT | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: -0.7 Speaker: u/Biostatrat Thesis: 1. THE FACT: FDA approved Handa’s generic cabozantinib; Exelixis withdrew its Delaware lawsuit and its FDA petition failed. 2. THE BRIDGE: Exelixis is still near ATH because the negative news is mostly only in Taiwanese sources and not yet repriced by U.S. markets. 3. THE VERDICT: Generic competition should pressure Exelixis’ ~$2B annual Cabometyx revenue, making the current valuation vulnerable. 4. RISKS: Generic launch may be delayed, patent protection may hold for many indications, market may never reprice, and option expiry could be too soon. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Main revenue from single cancer drug - Handa generic approval is full FDA approval - EXEL withdrew lawsuit against Handa - Citizen petition to block generic failed - Author holds puts, expects stock drop

AI Summary

Summary

u/Biostatrat presents a bearish DD thesis on $EXEL, claiming the FDA-approved Handa generic for cabozantinib threatens Exelixis’ main revenue driver.
Key evidence: FDA granted full approval to Handa’s generic, Exelixis withdrew its lawsuit against Handa, and its citizen petition failed—all while Wall Street reportedly hasn’t connected these dots.
Quality assessment: Well-researched, sourced, and clearly argued speculation rather than pure noise, but it relies on market mispricing and rapid generic launch timing.

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Comments 13

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(Reposted..... again.....  this time with a proof of BIGGER position. Mods, I got the clearance through modmail, hope everything is ok now)

I will try to post actual DD, but make it simple so even degens can follow. Yes, fries in the bag and all that.

$EXEL is a pharma company that relies on a single product for basically all of their revenue: cabozantinib (brand name CABOMETYX), which is a cancer drug. It currently brings about $2B a year. The shares are near ATH right now ($59), with analyst targets of $41-66. So you might think it's overvalued already (15B market cap on 2B annual revenue). And that's before the news below.

Cabozantinib is trying to fight off generics, with the stock pumping about 20% over the last couple weeks due to some news they secured patent wins to protect the drug until 2030 ([source](https://www.lifesciencesipreview.com/biotech/exelixis-locks-down-cancer-drug-exclusivity-until-2030-with-fed-circ-win)). I think **this is wrong, and here is why**:

Last Thursday, FDA gave full approval to a cabozantinib generic from a Taiwanese company called Handa ([have AI translate for example this news article](https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E6%BC%A2%E9%81%94%E6%96%B0%E8%97%A5%E7%8D%B2%E7%BE%8Efda%E6%9C%80%E7%B5%82%E6%A0%B8%E5%87%86-%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E6%8E%A8%E9%80%B2%E5%95%86%E6%A5%AD%E5%8C%96%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88-011900974.html), also [Official MOPS filing by the company on 9/3, search company number 6620](https://emops.twse.com.tw/server-java/t58query)). MOPS is like the SEC filing in Taiwan. The shares of Handa (TPEX:6620) pumped over 30% on the news. Full approval means any patent disputes are resolved and the drug is clear to start selling in the US immediately. But Handa is only traded on Taiwanese stock market, and all the news of the approval are in Taiwanese. I can't find a single English language source. $EXEL is also quiet on the subject.

Previously, $EXEL also pumped on news they are suing all these generic manufacturers, including Handa ([for example](https://www.law360.com/articles/2498105/handa-intas-face-patent-suits-over-exelixis-cancer-drug)) to stop generics. However, they quietly withdrew the lawsuit against Handa a couple weeks ago voluntarily (Delaware court case ID 1:2026cv00813, [link](https://dockets.justia.com/docket/delaware/dedce/1:2026cv00813/93777)). They also filed an FDA citizen petition to stop them from approving Handa's generic ([source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/939767/000093976726000059/exel-20260403.htm)). Since FDA gave full approval last week, the citizen petition obviously failed. The lawsuit was withdrawn 8/31 and the approval came 9/3. Timeline lines up perfectly.

**The key is: I think Wall St has genuinely not yet put two and two together**, that this company's main source of revenue just got handed a major L by a cheaper generic, likely launching within days. Yes, I am saying this is not priced in (**GASP!**) Wall St missed this because a) the news of the generic approval were only published in Taiwan, with nothing in English so far (Handa hasn't even made an English language press release), and b) $EXEL stayed quiet on the fact that they withdrew the lawsuit and the citizen petition failed, clearing the way for a launch of the generic. The above news were available to trade on since Friday, but I think nobody has put these pieces together yet. Once they realize, the stock will get crushed (I hope).

TLDR: Puts.

**The point of the post is not to present this as some sort of a sure trade.** I showed my work and cited sources, do your own research and come to your own conclusion. Join the trade, go long to fuck my puts, or just sit and watch me lose money. I hope you get some value or entertainment out of it.,

**Any feedback is welcome.** You think this is genius level DD or the worst autistic ramblings you saw so far today? Feedback I got so far is:

* September expiration is way too soon: this is true, I am clearly highly regarded and got ahead of myself. I am in the process of rolling those.
* Even October may be too soon if the market does not notice/ reprice / Handa does not launch soon enough, even if you are eventually right: This is also true. I am ok right now with the risk, but may re-evaluate. My puts may be fucked if that happens tho.
* P/E of EXEL is only like 18, not clearly overpriced: sure, but my thesis is that the generic will put pricing pressure on them and steal market share. So I am betting on future P/E being worse.
* You can use orange book for patent info: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/ob/patent\_info.cfm?Product\_No=001&amp;Appl\_No=208692&amp;Appl\_type=N#. Yes, cabozantinib has many indications and Handa may not be able to launch all those. However, given how reliant EXEL is on this single source of revenue, even 10-20% decline will hurt a lot.

Positions:

https://preview.redd.it/wemieqg6sjoh1.png?width=1448&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=11044417e51552e3895d55dc1d5546cb7cb0bcca

https://preview.redd.it/di7rxmo1sjoh1.png?width=734&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=630f3b7f1a8c2c5ad1e2554984644968cc343e7c

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