▶ Full Post Text
"Take a simple idea and take it seriously." – Charlie Munger
"Diversification? More like worsification." – Charlie Munger
The past two years I have probably researched 2800 tickers. I've done 1,482 fills with a 48% winrate and a +$50,285.02 return. That all stops today.
Everything I've read has an upside and a downside. For the most part, there's an unknowable bull and an unknowable bear. I don't see that with $UUUU. For a little context, read the $500k bet on it [before mine](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1w76r65/china_is_secretly_restricting_rareearth_shipments/).
I treat investing as a Keynesian beauty contest with reflexivity as its primary profit scorekeeper. That doesn't mean I ignore Buffett style valuations because fundamentals are an input to reflexivity. I make my money when I'm first and I wait. That is why I am closing my trading for the year, or forever, and going all-in on my retirement money into $UUUU.
The idea is dead simple: Set up my traveling carny stand, be ready to sell my tickets, and collect tendies on the only American Uranium mill and feasible domestic Rare Earth Elements play. "Don't trade the future, trade the shortages on the way there!" – SuperBrazilNuts. Our future is compute (crowded), and energy uranium/batteries/magnets (relatively empty in the domestic sphere). One is post-reflexivity, the other is coming to a theater near you, and coming soon.
Half of mined uranium and closer to two-thirds of enrichment capability comes from Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. If you haven't turned on the news in a decade, you probably recognize these are horrible geopolitical countries for the United States to be dependent on for scarce and precious resources. The asymmetric upside is enormous: all it takes is a single late night tweet from a dick-flexing prez, a public scoff between Trump and Xi/Putin on REEs, or an escalating International conflict that impacts the uranium trade for this stock to 2-10x over a week. What you saw you in October 25 and January this year is just the beginning for $UUUU.
American production was under 1% of world output through 2022. That difference between what America burns and acquires is what will make us money. Financing is Daddy-backed by US Gov and Dad won't let it fail, as long as 🥭 is in office. $725 million conditional loan from the Pentagon in 2025 for expanded rare earth processing at White Mesa, and a new US rare earth metals-and-alloys plant. Russian enriched uranium import was banned in 2024 and remains through 2028 through the [Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibiting_Russian_Uranium_Imports_Act). Section 232 proclamation, mid-January 2026, reduces foreign dependencies on processed critical minerals and derivative products. $UUUU is also a strategic uranium reserve, ready to unleash supply under international conflict or nuclear energy needs (for data centers or anything else).
Operations are quite mature while expanding: uranium is mining at \~2.0 million lbs of contained uranium per year. August 2025 — first kilogram of 99.9% dysprosium oxide, March 2026 — first 99.9% terbium oxide, the first US primary heavy rare earth oxide production in decades, both qualified to permanent-magnet manufacturer specification. Commercial-scale Dy/Tb/Sm possible from the existing Phase 1 circuit as early as Q4 2026. You are buying permits, a licensed mill nobody can replicate, and optionality on the heavy rare earth circuit scaling from pilot to commercial. It's moated. The Pentagon loan is a bet on the same thing. They have two producing domestic sites in Arizona and Utah, two more in Colorado/Utah under dewatering, a ranch in Wyoming, and four sites on standby in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. They also get heavy mineral sands and rare earth feedstock from Madagascar, Australia, Brazil and Kenya, a far healthier supply chain than America's "enemies".
As international war and inflation continues, $UUUU is a protected bet, as uranium and rare earth minerals can thrive in a strangled, conflicted world. No need to stress about war on this one: a bad headline is a bull setup here. VIX has been low and stable for quite a while now: this puppy should play with upcoming volatility. Warsh and his hawkish agenda can also constrain growth stocks leading to a squeeze on important commodities and materials.
Anyway, I will not bore you any longer. At least ride this one to 200%. I am full-porting and not considering selling until 300-400% gain, hopefully realized within the first half of 2027, but I could see an 8x. They have a mature commercial book, government favor, relevancy in international conflict, and now hyperscalers and additional connections in defense, electric vehicles, robotics and data centers with their rare earth minerals.
Position attached. I know it is a small port, I am a broke Wendy's tendies boy. This is all my retirement that I worked for for many years.