September 8th should have been a great day for cash flow stocks. Exploding oil tankers, rising bond rates, macro fear. Instead chip analyst upgrades sparked a rotation into everything I avoid.

September 8th should have been a great day for cash flow stocks. Exploding oil tankers, rising bond rates, macro fear. Instead chip analyst upgrades sparked a rotation into everything I avoid. Yesterday was a strange day. Oil spiked on Hormuz disruptions - exploding tankers, oil infrastructure under attack. Bond rates went up because inflation follows oil. In that environment you'd expect high-cash-yielding value stocks to outperform speculative growth. The opposite happened. Some analyst upgrades in chips sparked a strong rotation out of beaten-down cash flow names and into AI infrastructure. My portfolio had a down day vs. the market. The SaaSpocalypse watchlist is getting destroyed again on the same hazy narrative - companies are going to vibe-code their own versions of Adobe, nobody needs FDS when you have ChatGPT, PayPal is dead. I trimmed ADBE at 30% gains over the last month and sold FDS at close to 35% gain a couple weeks ago. If these kinds of days continue we may be looking forward to a second Christmas. The NVDA question nobody is asking: if chips are so much in demand, backlog so long, business so profitable, why is NVDA investing in AI startups and compute leasing rather than focusing its enormous resources on producing more chips? The Economist called NVDA the central bank of AI. The circular financing - NVDA taking every side of the trade - doesn't appear to threaten their balance sheet. But the diversification into compute leasing looks like the same signal as xAI renting capacity to Google. You build ahead of demand, then rent to competitors while waiting for the real economy to catch up. NVDA hedging its own chip dominance with compute leasing investments might be telling you something about how confident they actually are in the final level of AI demand. Colonel Kilgore said "someday this war is gonna end". He was right. He just didn't know when or who'd be left standing. Every CapEx cycle ends. The FRED chart shows the pattern clearly - inflation, tightening, stall, easing - and it has portended every major market ruckus since the Nifty 50. Whether Warsh proves to be a genuine hawk or does Trump's bidding on rates determines whether we get a small crash and recovery or the start of a long inflationary bear market. Either way: people will still need healthcare, commodities will do well, Buffett's 1970s playbook is worth revisiting, and the stocks being killed by narrative while the numbers stay fine are approaching their second Christmas. [https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/some-day-this-capex-is-gonna-end](https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/some-day-this-capex-is-gonna-end)