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When the Iran war first started, I remember reading the biggest concern for the global economy was that Hormuz would be closed and oil prices would skyrocket. We're now past the 6th month of Hormuz being technically closed (or at least oil supply being heavily disrupted), yet crude oil prices are fairly contained at \~$90 and the stock market remains very close to all time highs. So the Hormuz disruption appears to have barely phased the market so far.
As of August 28, the US strategic petroleum reserve sits at 286M barrels:
[https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_ending\_stocks\_of\_crude\_oil\_in\_the\_strategic\_petroleum\_reserve](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve)
For context, SPR was at 415M barrels in February before the conflict began and the 'SECDef authorized floor' is 243M barrels - the POTUS is barred from drawing oil below this floor except in the case of national emergency. The US has been drawing at a rate of \~5M barrels/week.
At current draw rate, the floor gets hit in less than 8 weeks. US will no longer be able to make up for the Hormuz disruption afterwards.
And there is no sign that the conflict is de-escalating or that Hormuz traffic will return to normal in the immediate future. Just yesterday, Iran attacked several oil tankers and US centcom announced this morning that it retaliated by destroying 3 Iranian oil tankers last night.
It feels like we're on the cusp of a major energy crisis, but markets are extremely calm for some reason. S&P VIX reached a year to date low yesterday of 14 flat, indicating that there's very little fear or hedging being done. How long can both stocks and crude oil prices ignore the escalating conflict?