This is exactly why most retailers will not make it.
u/Dapper_Addition_3837 ·
Reddit — r/StockMarket
· September 04, 2026 at 17:16
· ⬆ 98 pts
· 💬 42 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
Post argues most retail traders misread jobs data by focusing on headline NFP instead of the Fed’s inflation focus on average hourly earnings/wages.
Author’s thesis: strong job creation plus cooling wage growth is non-inflationary productive growth, so the Fed can hold rates steady rather than tighten.
Quality assessment: Macro opinion/commentary rather than well-researched DD; it correctly highlights wage data and NFP revisions, but oversimplifies Fed policy and contains no security-level analysis.
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▶ Full Post Text
Anyone that understands how the Fed works will not come to this conclusion.
The Fed focuses primarily on Average Hourly Earnings (AWG) over raw Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) numbers because AWG directly measures labor inflation rather than simple volume.
Headline NFP job additions simply state how many positions were created across the country, showing raw economic expansion. High job growth does not automatically trigger inflation if companies are adding staff without inflating compensation costs.
AWG tracks the actual price of labor per worker. Accelerating wage growth forces companies to raise consumer prices to cover rising labor expenses, creating wage push inflation. When annual wage growth cools such as dropping to 3.1% YoY **(from 3.2% in july)** it signals that service sector inflation is steadily abating regardless of headline hiring strength.
High job creation paired with moderate wage expansion represents productive economic growth rather than overheating. This gives central bankers room to **maintain interest rate stability** without imposing additional tightening on the economy.
Headline job counts are heavily volatile and subject to massive subsequent benchmark revisions, whereas AWG provides a far cleaner indicator of long-term structural cost pressures.
**So now the question is:** Are you a sheep like most retailers that has no idea how economic data works and just gambles your money away, or are you someone who knows how life works?