u/raytoei ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· September 01, 2026 at 02:04
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 21 comments
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Summary
The post argues El Niño creates a weather-driven investment backdrop: fewer US hurricanes, better US corn/soy yields, hotter Asian weather, and global rice supply pressure.
Author is cautiously bullish on Berkshire Hathaway (lower catastrophe claims), Cal-Maine (cheaper feed costs), and Asian ice cream/dairy names, while flagging rice exporters as likely losers.
Quality is thematic speculation with plausible causal logic but lacks deep data, valuation, or risk analysis; more idea-generation than rigorous value DD.
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*(****TLDR****: one can choose to be depressed over something that he can’t change or he can try and look around the corner)*
In the past week, there has been several articles on this hot and wet weather phenomena that is coming, this affects tropical countries most, and likely effect will be hotter temp and wreak wet and flooding as as dry and drought in all the wrong places.
So, if we are gonna be miserable due to an extended El Niño effect, let’s discuss about its impact.
Let me get the ball rolling:
1. In the USA, there will be less hurricane, by about half, so less payout for damages by Insurers, such as Berkshire Hathaway. ($BRK.b)
2. There is a higher chance that Corn and Soy yield will be more favourable. And this will be a net positive for egg producer Cal-Maine. ($calm)
3. Ice Cream. Seems obvious but perhaps Magnum ice cream (MICC)is a good choice either that or Hatsun Agro listed on the Bombay stock exchange. (When Wall’s ice cream retreated during the Magnum spin off, Arun ice cream moved into many neighbourhoods here in Asia).
Globally, El Niño will affect rice production and India will be forced to curb exports of rice. This will lead to rice inflation around the world. Rice is a direct component of cpi in Asia and developing countries. USA and Europe will be not be affected. The stocks Rice exporters in India will be hit, Thailand will benefit in the short term but they will have their own export ban as well.
Author expects higher US corn/soy yields under El Niño, lowering feed input costs. Cal-Maine’s profitability is sensitive to feed costs; lower input costs support margins. An indirect long on favorable grain conditions during El Niño. Actual yields may disappoint; egg prices/demand can offset; avian flu remains a major risk.
El Niño brings hotter weather in tropical Asia, lifting ice cream demand. Hatsun Agro is a major Indian dairy/ice cream company that should benefit from higher seasonal volume. A weather/seasonal long, but less concrete than the US-oriented ideas. Drought could hurt raw milk supply; rural incomes may weaken; competition and liquidity are concerns.
This Reddit post, published September 01, 2026,
features u/raytoei
discussing BRK.B, CALM, HATSUN.NS.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.