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**Position:** 1 KEEL Jan 2027 $4 call, paid $0.87 mid August, currently red. No shares. So $87 at risk total, I'm not here to pump anything, I mainly want to hear why I'm wrong.
Been following this one since the summer and I keep going back and forth on it, so figured I'd write it up and let the sub take shots at it.
**The company**
Keel is the old Bitfarms. They rebranded in April, moved the HQ to New York, and basically shut down the bitcoin mining business (US mining fully decommissioned as of Q2). The new plan is converting their power sites into AI/HPC data centers and leasing them to a hyperscaler. Stock is around $3.22, market cap \~$2B, 617M shares outstanding. It ran to $7.37 in June and gave most of it back. Yes, it's under $5, but with a $2B cap on Nasdaq, \~65% institutional ownership and 40M+ shares a day traded, I don't think it counts as a penny stock. (up to mods to decide)
The pitch/thesis is simple: power is the bottleneck for AI data centers, and Keel has powered sites.
**The sites**
Three of them supposedly close to fully permitted - Panther Creek PA at 350 MW, Sharon PA at 110 MW, Moses Lake WA at 18 MW. So about 478 MW near term, plus a 96 MW site in Quebec behind that. On the Q2 call they talked about growing the Pennsylvania footprint toward 2 GW eventually, which is where the "2.2 GW pipeline" line in coverage comes from, but that part is just talk right now, nothing contracted. Panther Creek is targeted ready-for-service end of 2027.
**Q2 numbers (reported Aug 10)**
Revenue $30.4M, down 50% YoY, because mining is winding down and there's no data center revenue replacing it yet. Net loss $65M. The balance sheet is actually the interesting part: $819M of liquidity ($698M cash + $121M in BTC). They raised $458M in convertible notes during the quarter, upsized from $350M. So the buildout is funded for a while, but part of that cash is borrowed and the share count keeps creeping up.
**The problem: still no tenant**
This is the whole debate on the stock. They haven't signed anything. No lease, no LOI, nothing. Management says multiple prospective tenants are negotiating and that they'd rather get good lease economics than announce something fast. Meanwhile Cipher signed AWS for 300 MW, Applied Digital has \~1.4 GW leased, IREN did a $9.7B deal with Microsoft. Every quarter that passes, demand lands at someone else's site. From the outside, "we're being patient on price" and "we're being passed over" look exactly the same, and I can't tell which one this is.
**Why I haven't moved on**
The CEO bought \~59k shares at $3.33 two days after the Q2 drop, roughly $196K, putting him around 1.35M shares. And the sell side is weirdly unanimous: 10 of 11 at buy or better, average target around $6.45 (BTIG $8, Citizens $10, low is Chardan at $5.50 - those are from August, verify yourself).
**Risks**
Revenue is shrinking, they burn cash, dilution is ongoing, and a crypto miner rebranding into AI is about the most 2026 thing imaginable. If nobody signs by mid 2027 this is just a pile of permits and a shrinking cash balance. I hold the call because it's a cheap option on one signature changing the whole story, not because the current financials support anything.
**What I'm watching**
Moses Lake permitting (late Q3 per management), a power/expansion update they pointed to for December or January, and a tenant announcement whenever that happens. If ever.
**Questions for the sub**
1. Anyone who works around data center leasing or just knows something: is 12+ months from pivot to first signed lease normal, or already a red flag?
2. Is the fact that everyone else signed first a sign these sites are second rate (interconnect, location, whatever), or just that Bitfarms started the pivot later than APLD, CIFR and IREN?
3. Am I wrong to treat the $819M as runway? How much of it realistically gets committed to construction before any lease revenue shows up?