Rule of 25 & 250 years of history suggests the AI bubble will not pop until the early 2030s
u/SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· August 29, 2026 at 23:32
· ⬆ 27 pts
· 💬 35 comments
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In the past 250 years the U.S. economy has absorbed spending on transformation technology equivalent to 25% of GDP before the bubble popped.
The 1860s railroad bubble popped after $2.5 billion was spent, \*\*25% of GDP\*\*
The 1920s electrification bubble popped after $26.1 billion was spent, \*\*25% of GDP\*\*
The 1990s internet bubble popped after $1.5 trillion was spent, \*\*25% of GDP\*\*
U.S. GDP today is $30 trillion so therefore AI spend needs to hit \*\*$7.5 trillion to follow the rule of 2025.\*\* it won't be until the early 2030s when we hit that number
Source:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-capex-bubble-burst-stock-market-history-2f73a9e4?st=w6KQy9