▶ Full Post Text
So, yesterday during the investor call for Nvidia I have noticed that Jensen has not answered concretely what kind of impacts the current "political trends" heavily skew more towards stopping the data center buildout on both sides as it has become quite unpopular in the US but also other countries.
**Question by Jim Schneider**
>"Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. If you think about the 100% growth you talked about in terms of the plus unconstrained demand growth you are expecting, the 70% you expect to fulfill in terms of supply, can you maybe talk about some of the, or rank order some of the most acute constraints, whether that be things like data center, power and shell availability, DRAM, wafer foundry availability, et cetera? If you could maybe help us understand which are the biggest among those, that would be very helpful. Thank you."
**Answer by Jensen Huang**
>"There's something funny I could say, but I'm going to just not. Last year, one of the funnest things to do is just to go figure out where I go for dinner and who I have dinner with, and their stock price doubles the next day. I think the answer is, our entire supply chain is challenged. Everybody is really running flat out. More capacity is coming online all the time, which is one of the advantages of what's going to happen this year. It's not going to come online in an instance in time, but it's going to come online every day. Yields are going to get improved. We're going to be doing yield improvement. We're going to work hard on working with every one of our suppliers."
>"We have a- It's not even next year yet, so we've got lots and lots of time to work hard every day. So at this moment, we have supply for 70%. We have more supply than 70%, but about 70%. Our demand is much higher than that, and we've got to go work hard, or we're going to be disappointing customers. We like not to disappoint our customers, and we like to work hard for them. So I'm going to need the help of the entire supply chain to help me out here. They all know that. What I'm telling you about our needs for next year is exactly consistent with what I've told them. Everybody's on the exact same song sheet, and I'm trying to be as transparent as we can because we're talking about big numbers."
**My take**
Not going into the demand side of AI, even tho I find that questionable as well...
Looking at the current buildout some reports mention that at the moment stock of chips required for the build-out are not being powered on & the massive data center buildout is hitting increasingly major political backlash from citizens, with it being an US election year as well I have reason to believe that projects are gonna get massively delayed or even cancelled.
Now during previous capex booms and consequent busts in the past(Railroad & fiber) it actually got physically laid out and was at the end of the day very useful later on, now we have a datacenter capex boom in which the actual infrastructure not being build, it could potentially lead to a massive correction in which the catalyst coming either from Bond market strain, poor IPO's of Anthropic & OpenAI, pushback from local politicians(Which is already happening) breaking mainstream or the Iran/Russia-Ukraine war escalating. For which it is most likely these events will occur before the end of the year and even one of these catalyst could be catastrophic, imagine what would happen if all 3 happened....
So please be careful and make sure that you have enough money left to survive a major economic burst since I heavily believe this cannot be contained to private investors & firms and will majorly effects ordinary citizens..